The January 2026 Visa Bulletin Signals the Collapse of the "Merit-Based" Safety Net

For the better part of a decade, high-growth founders and executives from India and China operated with a specific safety net: "If the EB-2 backlog gets too bad, I’ll just qualify for EB-1A and skip the line."

As we sit in the first week of the new year, awaiting the February forecast, the data from the January 2026 Visa Bulletin has already solidified the trend for Q1: that safety net has effectively collapsed. While mainstream outlets are reporting on the "advancement" of dates, the reality for the top 10% of talent is far more complex. The data shows that the merit-based fast track is no longer fast, and the strategy for high-net-worth talent must shift immediately from "waiting" to "maneuvering."

Why the January 2026 Visa Bulletin Ends the Era of "Instant" Green Cards

The headline news—that EB-1 India has advanced into early 2023—masks a critical stickiness in the system. In previous years, an EB-1 Priority Date was a golden ticket to near-instant adjudication.

Today, it is simply another queue.

We are advising our clients to stop viewing the EB-1 category as a quick fix for a Green Card. Instead, view it as a "Priority Date Locker." Even with the movement seen in the January 2026 Visa Bulletin, an Indian national filing an EB-1A today faces a multi-year wait before they can file for Adjustment of Status.

The implication is severe: You cannot rely on an I-140 approval alone. You must maintain underlying status—O-1A or L-1A—indefinitely. If you are a founder, this means your O-1 itinerary needs to be robust enough to withstand three years of scrutiny, not just one.

The New Calculus: When to Buy Your Freedom vs. Wait for It

While the "talent" lines (EB-1, EB-2, EB-3) struggle with stagnation, the "capital" line is moving. The EB-5 Unreserved category for India has jumped nearly a year, reaching May 2022.

This creates a distinct arbitrage opportunity that didn't exist two years ago. For high-earning tech executives stuck behind the "2013 Wall" of EB-2, the career cost of waiting—missed equity in new ventures, inability to join early-stage startups—now exceeds the cost of an EB-5 investment.

If you have the liquidity, the January 2026 Visa Bulletin suggests that money is currently moving faster than talent.

BOOK A STRATEGIC IMMIGRATION AUDIT NOW!

Stop the Downgrade: Strategic Action for 2026

Perhaps the most crucial takeaway is the convergence of EB-2 and EB-3 dates. Both categories are now virtually neck-and-neck, hovering around late 2013.

In the past, we aggressively "downgraded" EB-2 clients to EB-3 to capture momentum. That window has closed. Filing a downgrade petition in this climate is largely a waste of legal fees and invites unnecessary USCIS scrutiny without offering a speed advantage. The only exception is for families facing a child age-out scenario where the "Dates for Filing" chart offers a slim CSPA protection advantage.

For everyone else, the best move is to audit your spouse’s birth country. If you are an Indian national married to a spouse born in a "Rest of World" country, we can utilize [Cross-Chargeability Strategies] to bypass these backlogs entirely. It remains the only true "hack" left in the system.

Frequently Asked Questions: Navigation Strategies for 2026

• Will EB-2 India move significantly in 2026?

  Based on current trends, we expect only modest quarterly movements (weeks, not months). The "2013-2014" priority dates remain a significant wall due to high demand.

  
  

• Is EB-1 still "Current" for India?

  No. While it has advanced, there is a backlog. It is no longer an instant path to a Green Card, meaning you must maintain underlying non-immigrant status (H-1B, O-1, L-1).

  
  

• Should I downgrade from EB-2 to EB-3 right now?

  Likely not. With dates converging in the January 2026 Visa Bulletin, the processing risks of a downgrade outweigh the non-existent speed advantage.

Stop Waiting. Start Maneuvering.

The government has paused your timeline; don't let them pause your career. Book a Strategic Immigration Audit with Shan Potts Law Offices today. We will review your Priority Date, assess your O-1 or EB-5 eligibility, and build a roadmap that moves faster than the Visa Bulletin.